Data Informs; Algorithms Optimise; You Decide
27 October 2026
Disclosure: BJ&A assisted Smithfield in the event described here
Marketers have greater access to more data than ever before, and yet it seems they are more confused than they’ve ever been. You can certainly have too much of a good thing.
The two keynote presenters at the recent Smithfield Big Breakfast event, the latest in a series the independent agency is putting together for its clients are more vested in data than most, yet both argued for caution in drawing fast, poorly informed conclusions from what’s out there.
Fiona Blades, Founder CEO of MESH Experience, who founded her business to try to find answers to the unanswered questions she kept asking as a marketer and agency leader called her talk: “Data Informs But is it Telling the Truth?”, whilst Karl Weaver, the data analyst, Co-Founder of D2D and Managing Partner of KW Consulting spoke to: “Getting Good at the Wrong Things: How Measurement Can Narrow Ambition”.
There can be little doubt we have got less good at asking the difficult questions. We see data as inviolate, it cannot lie, it cannot be questioned. And yet we all know that if you put rubbish in, you get rubbish out. An ancient cartoon (once a staple at ad conferences, not used quite so much now) is equally scathing with its caption: ‘Marketers use data like a drunk uses a lamppost; for support rather than illumination.’
It’s not so funny when it’s true.
Take share-of-voice. Is the concept as robust as it used to be given the mass of unmeasured media touchpoints? Fiona quoted analyses from the brewer, Molson Coors comparing the relationship between on the one hand share-of-voice and sales, and on the other share-of-experience and sales. Share of experience takes account of all consumer contacts with the brand, not just those accounted for by advertising within measured media.
The SoV relationship with sales produced an R2 of 0.13; the share-of-experience an R2 of 0.85, and yet we continue to base a lot of decisions on share-of-voice. Why?
Certainly, it’s easier, there’s trend data and history. But it’s misleading as by definition share-of-voice can only be calculated on the basis of media forms where ad expenditure is measured.
It’s always a good idea to question the data. Where does it come from? What’s it based on? What’s included and what isn’t? I advise planners and those using data to ask to take part as a respondent in the surveys or measurements on which their decisions are based. This is not always popular with research businesses, but it is a rewarding, insightful exercise. After all, if you, as a professional find it hard to complete the survey what chance do ordinary mortals have when it comes to answering accurately?
We underestimate emotion in favour of rationality. Karl compared the explosion in marketing opportunities – from around 150 15 years ago to over 15,000 today. It’s impossible to assess every opportunity on the basis of emotion, and yet we have numbers that allow for comparisons. The problem is we believe the numbers – even though they are not comparable and are in no way like-for-like.
Yet they’re numbers, so they must be right.
The numbers however much we analyse them, stretch them, bend them are there to guide us, not make decisions for us. They are a tool.
Sir John Hegarty makes a nice point. Who, he asks can tell him about Bartolomeo Cristofori? Most know little. And what about Beethoven? Or Brahms?
Cristofori (1655 – 1731) was born in Padua. In around 1700 he invented the piano. As far as is known he never composed a note. He came up with a wonderful tool, but it took later geniuses to use it.
James Graham’s latest play, ‘The Standard of Living’ is packing them in on The Haymarket, no small feat when you consider the subject is the life and economic theories of John Maynard Keynes.
Keynes did not believe in the principle of ‘laissez faire’, by which the markets decide on the best outcomes with minimum interference from Government.
Keynes believed in intervention; in Graham’s play he describes this as allowing everyone to live a good life. Stimulate demand, spread joy, use money for good.
We should apply Keynesian thinking to marketing. Don’t just accept the numbers, understand them and use them to guide you along the right path. If you fail, you’ve learned something. Surely that is a better route to success than simply doing the same as everyone else?
As the fractional CMO and consultant Mel Hunter Yell had it at the Smithfield event, an obsession with following the data can only lead to everyone becoming average.
And what’s the fun in that?